According to the "Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2012-2020)", by 2015, the cumulative production and sales of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles will strive to reach 500,000; by 2020, pure electric vehicles and plug-in vehicles Electric hybrid vehicles have a production capacity of 2 million units and cumulative production and sales of more than 5 million units.

 

The industry believes that new energy vehicles will enter a period of rapid growth in the next 3-5 years. As an important part of new energy vehicles, the lithium battery industry, which accounts for 50% of its cost, will also benefit from it.

 

According to statistics, China has abundant sources of raw materials for lithium-ion batteries: Qinghai, Tibet, and other places have a large number of lithium resources that can be developed and have low cost; and reserves of manganese, iron, vanadium, and phosphorus are also abundant. At the same time, China has formed a complete upstream and downstream industry chain in the field of low-power lithium-ion batteries, and lithium batteries have developed rapidly. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in 2013, China's cumulative production of lithium batteries reached 4.768 billion, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 16.9%; the main business revenue exceeded 74 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 17.8%.

 

Automotive commentator Jia Xinguang said that unlike small-sized lithium batteries such as laptops and mobile phones, the use of lithium batteries in new energy vehicles is hundreds or even thousands of times that of consumer electronics applications. The calculation will exceed 500,000 vehicles, and at that time 15 billion watt-hours / year of energy-type power battery modules and 3 billion watt-hours / year of power models will be required. Therefore, once the market for new energy vehicle demand is opened, it will bring explosive growth to the lithium battery industry.

 

With the expansion of the lithium battery industry, positive materials that determine the important indicators of lithium battery energy density, life, and safety have also received increasing attention from the industry.

 

The cathode materials used in lithium batteries are mainly lithium manganate, ternary materials (lithium nickel cobalt manganate), and lithium iron phosphate. Data show that in 2013, the size of China's cathode material market reached 7.36 billion yuan, an increase of 12% year-on-year. At present, there are 189 lithium battery anode material manufacturers in China.

 

Jia Xinguang said that the energy density of lithium iron phosphate as a positive electrode material is greater than that of lithium manganate, and among various positive electrode materials, the internal resistance of lithium iron phosphate is very small, which makes the battery have a longer service life and generates less heat during charging and discharging. High security. However, because lithium batteries for electric vehicles are connected by dozens or even hundreds of cells, the requirement for consistency is very high, which is difficult for lithium iron phosphate batteries.

 

Lithium manganate power batteries have high redox heat release stability. After more than 300 charge and discharge cycles, the capacity retention rate still reaches more than 90%, and it is far superior to iron phosphate in terms of industrial maturity, cost, and consistency. Lithium, but its stability is poor. Jia Xinguang believes that in order for new energy vehicles to gain market recognition, safety is of paramount importance. New energy vehicle manufacturers prefer to abandon certain technical performance and also ensure the safety performance of their products. Therefore, in order to win the market, lithium manganate also needs to increase research and development in the field of safety.

 

Ternary material is a new type of lithium battery cathode material that has developed rapidly in recent years. It has excellent characteristics such as high capacity, low cost, and good safety. According to Feng Xiangming, the technical director of Henan Universal Group Co., Ltd., chemically speaking, the ternary material is an excessive metal oxide with a relatively high electrical content. But the chemical properties are more active than lithium iron phosphate, which causes a certain degree of safety problems.

 

Huang Xuejie, a researcher at the Institute of Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that the 2013 Tesla electric vehicle fire was related to the positive electrode material of the power battery. It used a nickel-cobalt-aluminum ternary material 18650 battery, which will self-heat above 180 degrees Celsius. It was difficult to control after the fire.

 

Huang Xuejie believes that the current domestic lithium-ion battery for electric vehicles is mainly lithium iron phosphate, which is a correct choice for the development of domestic electric vehicles. The phenomenon of self-heating occurs when the lithium iron phosphate material is above 250 degrees Celsius. The lithium iron phosphate battery needs to solve the problem of energy density in the future.

 

   According to Liao Chenglin, deputy director of the Automotive Energy System and Control Technology Research Department of the Institute of Electrical Engineering of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate and ternary materials are three types of cathode materials that have been industrialized at present. . A few years ago, most people in the industry believed that lithium iron phosphate and lithium manganate were the most promising cathode materials for power lithium batteries. Ternary materials are more suitable for consumer electronics. With the advancement of technology, the view of lithium battery cathode materials is constantly changing. For example, a few years ago, lithium iron phosphate was considered to be the safest. There are many domestic manufacturers, and many new energy automobile manufacturers use lithium iron phosphate for packaging. Trial production of the car, but in recent years, there are different views; some people thought that lithium manganate was not safe enough, but in recent years, lithium manganate has developed rapidly in Japan and other countries; ternary materials were not considered suitable for power batteries, and the cycle life was relatively Short, but Tesla electric vehicles use ternary cathode materials, although there have been fire incidents, but it does not seem to have had a large negative impact on its development.

 

Liao Chenglin believes that, in terms of current technical conditions, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate and ternary materials all have a certain market space. In the end, who can occupy a larger market share depends on the actual application effect of electric vehicles. Survival of the fittest.

 

Feng Xiangming said that although many battery manufacturers believe that ternary materials will become the mainstream of the future market. However, at this stage and in the short term, lithium iron phosphate batteries will still dominate the market. As for the future development direction, it depends on the market development, and battery production needs to follow the choice of "tangible hand" and "invisible hand".

 

Liao Chenglin admitted that from the perspective of the requirements of electric vehicles for power batteries, the development trend of lithium-ion batteries in the future is toward high energy density, high safety, long life, high reliability, and low cost. At present, there are still some battery anode materials that are in the pilot stage or even in the preliminary research stage, and may be widely used in the future. For example, the specific energy of batteries made of lithium-rich manganese-based materials can reach 250-400 Wh / kg; Graphene is used. -The specific energy of the lithium-sulfur battery with the sulfur compound as the positive electrode material can exceed 2000 Wh / kg. These materials have outstanding performance. Although there is still a long way to go before industrialization, they are likely to become the future development direction.

 

Liao Chenglin said that the domestic lithium battery industry has made great progress at present, with advantages such as large market potential and low production costs, but there are also obvious shortcomings. For example, there are too many lithium battery manufacturers, and the scale of the companies is generally small. There is still a certain gap between the product quality and the international advanced level. What is more serious is that there is still a large gap in the preliminary research and intellectual property rights of lithium battery materials in China.

 

In this regard, Liao Chenglin suggested that the product quality of lithium battery materials in China should be improved from three aspects: first, to strengthen the basic research of lithium battery materials, to occupy the commanding heights of intellectual property rights in the large-scale application of power lithium batteries in the future; second, to change the lithium battery production enterprises The current situation of small scale and large quantities has fostered large companies with international product competitiveness and profitability in the areas of positive electrode materials, negative electrode materials, electrolytes, separators, battery cells and systems. Third, we must promote lithium battery manufacturers and companies The in-depth cooperation of vehicles and innovation at the application level have developed lithium battery systems suitable for various pure electric vehicles, promoting the promotion of pure electric vehicles and the development of batteries.

 

Liao Chenglin believes that the development direction of lithium batteries lies in automotive power batteries, and all parties in the lithium battery related industry chain should adopt joint ventures and cooperation to jointly develop the lithium power battery industry. Among them, the most typical models are "automotive vehicle manufacturers + lithium-ion battery manufacturers" and "auto parts manufacturers + lithium-ion battery manufacturers". Their advantages are not only the ability to diversify risks, but also to integrate the industrial chain. Downstream advantages reduce costs and create synergies.