At present, there are two major problems in the chemical industry. First, due to oversupply and falling demand, upstream raw materials such as petroleum and coal are operating at low prices, and the industry's cost support has weakened. Second, the main consumption of traditional chemical products such as real estate, automobiles, home appliances and textiles. In the field, the sluggish demand directly affects the profitability of upstream industries. Against this background, analysis of investment institutions believes that the overall operating pressure of traditional chemical companies in 2016 will still be relatively large, and some emerging industries affected by national policies will maintain a rapid growth trend. Among them, driven by the demand for new energy vehicles, power batteries will enter a period of rapid development, which will increase the demand for upstream key materials.

 

Electric vehicle production soars

 

According to the statistics of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the cumulative output of new energy vehicles in the first 11 months of 2015 was 279,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 4 times. Among them, the output of pure electric passenger vehicles was 117,200, an increase of 3.5 times year-on-year; the output of plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles was 53,200, a year-on-year increase of 3 times; the production of pure electric commercial vehicles was 90,100, a year-on-year increase of 11 times; The output of hybrid commercial vehicles was 18,900, a year-on-year increase of 90%.

 

 

    It is understood that, in order to promote the development of the new energy vehicle industry, China has actively promulgated related industrial policies and launched a full range of promotional programs such as target plans, subsidy policies, license policies, tax policies, and government promotion goals. It is reported that the "Development Plan for Electric Vehicle Charging Facilities" is about to be implemented. It is expected that the central policy will subsidize 30% of the investment amount of charging facilities. At that time, the "central + local" subsidies of Beijing, Shanghai and other cities will reach 45% ~ 60%. Promote the construction of new energy supporting facilities and solve the key bottlenecks in the development of new energy vehicles.

 

 

12In December 2015, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Interim Measures for the Management of Lithium-Ion Battery Industry Specification Announcements. Previously, five departments including the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine and Standardization of the People's Republic of China also jointly issued five newly revised national standards for electric vehicle charging, which will be implemented on January 1, 2016. Industry insiders said that new energy vehicles are of great significance for environmental protection and the upgrading of the automotive industry. They are expected to receive policy red envelopes later, and the industry will welcome explosive growth this year.

 

 

Zheng Liansheng, a researcher in the Bohai Securities industry, predicts that as the “13th Five-Year Plan” policy still strongly supports the development of new energy vehicles, coupled with the 20% reduction in subsidies from 2017 to 2018 compared to 2016, it is expected that the production and sales of new energy vehicles will rebound significantly in 2017. The annual sales volume is expected to exceed 400,000.

 

 

With the implementation of electric vehicle subsidies and the abolition of new energy vehicle purchase restrictions, new energy vehicles are about to enter a period of rapid development. According to the strategic goals formulated by China, by 2020, the annual sales of self-owned brands of pure electric and plug-in new energy vehicles will exceed 1 million, accounting for more than 70% of the domestic market; by 2025, new energy vehicles synchronized with the international advanced level Annual sales of 3 million vehicles, accounting for more than 80% of the domestic market.

 

The market for lithium battery materials is popular

 

敬 Bohai Securities researcher Zhang Jinghua believes that the development of new energy vehicles will definitely promote the demand for power lithium batteries, and then drive the rapid development of the lithium battery industry chain. As an important part of the power system of electric vehicles, batteries account for more than 35% of the cost of electric vehicles. At present, there are many types of power batteries for electric vehicles. From the comprehensive performance comparison of specific energy, specific power, volume specific energy, operating temperature, and cycle life, lithium-ion batteries have strong advantages. As a power system for electric vehicles, As the mainstream, the explosive growth of the new energy vehicle market has made lithium-ion power batteries the fastest growing part of electric vehicle power batteries.

 

 

In 2014, China produced 83,900 new energy vehicles. According to the current situation of the power battery equipment of new energy vehicles on the market, an A-class passenger car generally requires a 30kWh capacity battery, a commercial electric bus needs 200kWh, and a CMB car has about 70kWh. According to the composition of the types of new energy vehicles produced in China in 2014, if each new energy vehicle requires 60kWh, it will require a total of 5.03GWh of power batteries in 2014, with an output value of nearly 10 billion yuan; The car calculates that it is expected to require 19.15GWh of power battery.

 

 

On the basis of stable growth in lithium-ion battery output, the explosiveness of power batteries will extend to key lithium battery materials industries such as upstream lithium ore, positive and negative electrode materials, separators, and electrolytes. It is expected that materials with excess capacity will increase in 2016. There will be a tight balance, and under-capacity materials, in the case that the new capacity cannot be effectively released in 2016, the supply will be further tight.

 

 

It can also be seen from the price trends of lithium carbonate and lithium hexafluorophosphate that the growth rate of the supply side has slowed down, while the rapid development of new energy vehicles has driven the rapid growth of the demand side, leading to the continuous increase in the prices of lithium carbonate and lithium hexafluorophosphate. From the perspective of the key materials of lithium batteries, it mainly includes cathode materials, anode materials, electrolytes, and lithium battery separators. It is expected that the steady increase in the price of materials related to the lithium battery industry chain will be the trend.

 

 

Zhang Jinghua believes that from the perspective of related materials, the market for positive and negative materials has become saturated, and the production capacity has been significantly excess. The future lies in the introduction of new materials. Such as high-voltage, high-capacity cathode materials, graphene, silicon-based, alloy-based anode materials, and so on. The upstream lithium ore resources focus on resource scarcity and monopoly; the diaphragm lies in the import substitution of power diaphragms; the electrolyte lies in the import substitution of lithium hexafluorophosphate and the integrity of the industrial chain. It is recommended to follow lithium carbonate> diaphragm> electrolyte> positive and negative electrodes Material sequence, looking for corresponding investment opportunities.

 

Quality stocks deserve attention

 

锂 In terms of lithium carbonate, due to the explosive growth of downstream demand and the slow impact of new production capacity, the prices of industrial-grade lithium carbonate and battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 151.47% and 181.69% in 2015, respectively. The release of new capacity of lithium carbonate in 2016 is still slow. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will remain high for a certain period of time. It is recommended to pay attention to Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, CITIC Guoan, Tibet Mining, Steyr, Zhonghe Wait.

 

 

The diaphragm is an important carrier for measuring the safety index of lithium-ion batteries, and has the strongest profitability among power lithium batteries. At present, there are few domestic enterprises involved in this industry. Most of the separators produced are also applied to small lithium batteries, and the import substitution advantage is obvious. It is estimated that the global lithium battery separator sales in 2015 will be about 1.41 billion square meters, and by 2016 it will reach 1.75 billion square meters. Suggest to pay attention to Cangzhou Pearl, Nanyang Technology, Dadongnan, Jiu Jiu Jiu, Jinhui Technology, Dongguan Xingyuan Technology, Xinxiang Greeen, Zhongkelaifang.

 

 

At present, the positive electrode material is at the core position in the industrial chain, and the huge market capacity is enough to make it a hot spot for investment. The positive electrode material market has now shifted from lithium cobaltate to ternary materials. Materials remain the focus of the future. Key enterprises include Dangsheng Technology, Shanshan, CITIC Guoan, Shenzhen Tianjiao, Tianjin Strand, Hunan Ruixiang, and Yuyao Jinhe.

 

 

Pacific Securities industry researcher Zhang Xue also said that with the continuous release of new production capacity, the supply and demand of lithium iron phosphate batteries tended to balance or even oversupply. Among the batteries recently released for pure electric passenger cars, ternary lithium batteries have become the absolute main force. It is predicted that the demand for ternary power lithium batteries will be strong in 2016. It is optimistic about the upstream ternary cathode material industry in the long term. Dangsheng Technology and Shanshan Co., Ltd. are recommended.

 

 

The electrolyte is the core material with strong profitability. The domestic market is still dominated by companies such as Cathay Huarong, New Zebang, Guangzhou Tianci, etc. (the share of which exceeds 60%). Bohai Securities predicts that the lithium battery electrolyte market size in China in 2015 and 2020 will be about 1.8 billion yuan and 5.5 billion yuan, with a compound growth rate of 25.03% from 2015 to 2020. The profitability of electrolyte manufacturers will tend to be differentiated. In the future, high-quality electrolyte companies with perfect industrial chains, obvious market channel advantages, obvious technological advantages, and stable product performance batches are expected to achieve stable growth. Suggest to pay attention to Jiangsu Cathay Pacific, Dongguan Shanshan, Tianjin Jinniu, New Zebang, Tianci materials, polyfluoride and so on.

 

 

Electrolyte lithium hexafluorophosphate At present, only a few companies in China, such as polyfluoride, 99, Jiu Jiu, Guangzhou Tianci, Tianjin Jinniu, can produce on a large scale. In the second half of last year, with the increase in demand for power lithium batteries, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has risen.